How do you know?

I found an excellent blog the other day which retold an old eastern parable:

One day, an old farmer discovered that his horse had run away. "Terrible!" his neighbors said sympathetically. "How do you know?" asked the farmer.

The next morning the farmer's horse returned with two wild horses. "Wonderful!" the neighbors said. "How do you know?" asked the farmer.

The next morning the farmer's son tried to ride one of the untamed horses, was thrown off, and broke his leg. "Terrible!" his neighbors said. "How do you know?" asked the farmer.

The next morning, soldiers came to the village to draft young men into the army. Seeing that the son's leg was broken, they passed him by. "Wonderful!" said the neighbors. "How do you know?" asked the farmer.

It highlights how we make snap judgements on current events without allowing for future developments. It's a universal truth that we constantly ignore and makes a nice (irritating?) story to use while wagging your condescending finger at someone who has just jumped in with both feet.

My dept is being re-organised at the moment and of course, reactions vary (some well justfied, some less so). I decided long ago that in a large company, you are always between re-organisations. If you have a good boss/dept/project, enjoy! If you don't have a good boss/dept/project, hang on, change is coming down the line towards to you.

I know we have to make assumptions in almost everything we do (otherwise we would drive around every corner at 5mph in case there was a elephant in the road) but this chimes with my complaint about news (especially 24 hour news) which emphasises immediacy over reflection and influences all of us to the same rush of judgement. Just say "How do you know?".